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WB7 From uncertainty to risk management

Lead: DTU Klima Center, co-lead: DMI

The CRES engine is the development of a new and much advanced regional climate change tool, which is capable of providing more constrained regional climate change information and at the same time utilise this information in a comprehensive manner to assist adaptation strategies in the Danish society. The underlying rationale is that by assembling and applying more advanced coupled models of the regional climate system, uncertainties in climate projections are reduced in so far as structural uncertainties (uncertainties originating from inaccurate handling of important feed back processes, not easily quantifiable) are concerned. Next this information is streamlined to feed into a risk management framework, which will build not only upon this regional climate model, but on the experience gathered from the combined efforts within all CRES science work blocks. The framework will address multiple physical and socioeconomic climate change impacts as a basis for the identification of cost effective climate change adaptation options for Denmark.